AAN: Oscar Predictions - Acting and Best Picture

Welcome to the final part of my official Oscar predictions, the big one that this 2013 series of Annual Awards Nerdism has come down to. Tonight, I'll be looking at the Acting and Best Picture awards, complete with poetry. Enjoy!
PAST PREDICTIONS: Sound and Design, 'Bests' and Visuals, Writing and Directing

Just in case you need a refresher on the rankings:
Sparkling Silva - Who I want to win.
'Overjoyed' David - Who will win.
Loopy Looper - Who definitely won't win.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook / Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln / Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables / Joaquin Phoenix in The Master / Denzel Washington in Flight

There's no way this category can possibly surprise,
Daniel Day-Lewis is the winner in everyone's eyes,
Hugh Jackman may have been the perfect Jean Valjean,
Joaquin Phoenix may think that awards are wrong,
Bradley Cooper did everything right,
Denzel probably won't win for Flight,
But there's simply nothing they can do,
Day-Lewis will be adding another Oscar to his two,
For he is pretty much Abraham Lincoln,
And a surprise win would be wishful thinkin'.

I would love for Daniel Day-Lewis to not win for this one (although I haven't seen Lincoln still so I can't judge), but that's not going to happen. There's a sliver of hope for Bradley Cooper if he were to ride on the Silver Linings Playbook wave, even though he lost the Spirit award today. He's still the best thing about that movie. By far. I'm more on Team Jackman, though.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty / Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook / Emmanuelle Riva in Amour / Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild / Naomi Watts in The Impossible

This category caters for the young and old,
But it is pretty hard to tell who'll take the gold,
Naomi Watts brings up the rear,
Quvenzhane Wallis is the spoiler to fear,
Jennifer Lawrence has won most of the awards,
But Jessica Chastain has won lots on her own accord,
While it is very much a race between these two,
Picking Riva seems like the thing to do,
Since all of the others have many chances left,
Riva should win for her beautiful portrayal of death.

This is a very difficult category because there are likely winners coming from every corner. Jennifer Lawrence supposedly has the award locked up but I don't want to believe it since I'm not the hugest fan of her performance in Silver Linings Playbook and she just doesn't seem like a clear winner. Jessica Chastain is supposedly her arch-nemesis in this race and she looks like a better winner, especially because she won just about every critics award (but that didn't mean too much for Kathryn Bigelow). However, as much as I love J-Chas, I can't see her winning just yet. I do, however, envision Emmanuelle Riva winning, which may seem like a longshot to some but again, I'm not dismissing this whole Amour takeover. Let's be honest here - Riva is by far the most deserving. I'll probably end up being wrong, but I'm not sold in Jennifer Lawrence winning tomorrow.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin in Argo / Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook / Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master / Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln / Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained

How to pick a winner when they've all won before?
And there aren't even any surprise awards to go to Amour,
Long ago this was Leo DiCaprio's to win,
But his spot was taken by Alan Arkin,
There won't be an acting award for Argo,
But there might be one for Robert De Niro,
His gold lining will make it three,
Though he could be beaten by Tommy Lee,
This would only make Jones sad of course,
But Philip Seymour Hoffman is the dark horse,
I think they'll go for Christoph Waltz again,
For being Django's bounty hunter friend,
Hopefully he has the award within his reach,
Because all I want is another Waltz acceptance speech.

I'm going to put my money (lol, wut money) where my mouth is and wager that Christoph Waltz will take the award. I mean, he's taken the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, and the only reason he didn't get the SAG was because he wasn't nominated - thanks to the down-to-the-wire release date for Django Unchained. So he's looking like the best prospect out of a wide open field. However, I can see Tommy Lee Jones taking it away because he just seems like the kind of performer the Academy would go for. I have heard whispers about De Niro and Hoffman being possible winners, and I definitely wouldn't dismiss them. The only person I would dismiss is Alan Arkin. I could be wrong about that, though.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams in The Master / Sally Field in Lincoln / Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables / Helen Hunt in The Sessions / Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook

I don't really need to put this into a rhyme,
Anne Hathaway has won every time,
And certainly nothing will change,
There's no one close in range,
This isn't Amy Adams' year,
Jacki Weaver's presence leaves nothing to fear,
They certainly won't go for Helen Hunt,
Sally Field seems like an unlikely punt,
While Hugh Jackman won't win his,
Anne Hathaway will fly the flag for Les Mis.

LOL to anyone who thinks that Anne Hathaway won't win. And LOL to anyone who thinks she doesn't deserve it.

Best Motion Picture of the Year 

Amour / Argo / Beasts of the Southern Wild / Django Unchained / Les Miserables / Life of Pi / Lincoln / Silver Linings Playbook / Zero Dark Thirty

Here we are, the Best Picture of the Year,
It seems that Argo will get the most cheers,
Even without a Best Director nom,
Which could be where it will all go wrong,
Les Mis probably won't hit the right note,
Life of Pi will miss this boat,
Beasts of the Southern Wild was a nice debut,
But it's chances here are small and few,
I still think there'll be a surprise from Amour,
Though Lincoln's chances are coming to the fore,
Silver Linings Playbook is the big entry from Weinstein and Co,
And could look to take it from Argo,
But my favourite has had a lot of hate,
Zero Dark Thirty seemed to be the favourite out of the gate,
As the season has gone on people have liked it less,
So it won't be the big winner in the press.

This is almost certainly Argo's, but I still don't see it as a clear winner. It is quite the bummer that I don't get to see this until the day after the Oscars. I haven't seen Lincoln and Life of Pi either - they just didn't entice me enough to get my ass over to the cinema. Out of the others, though, I'd rank them like this:
6. Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Les Miserables
4. Silver Linings Playbook
3. Amour
2. Django Unchained 
1. Zero Dark Thirty
I suppose it is quite the controversial choice to have Zero Dark Thirty topping the range, but it is just everything I want in a movie. Plus, it is possibly the most challenging (aside from Amour) of all the nominees, so if it won, I'd be immensely happy. This is Argo's to lose, though, and I wouldn't be surprised if either Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook took it away.

What do you think? Who do you think will take out these awards?

AAN: Oscar Predictions: Sound and Design

Welcome to part one of my official Oscar predictions, which is what this season of Annual Awards Nerdism has boiled down to. In the five nights leading up to the Oscars, I will break down each of the categories with my predictions (and there'll be some poetry down the line). Tonight, I will be dealing with the sound (Best Achievement in Sound Editing, Best Achievement in Sound Mixing, Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures - Original Song, Best Achievement in Music Written for Motion Pictures - Original Score) and design awards (Best Achievement in Art Direction, Best Achievement in Make-Up, Best Achievement in Costume Design).

As per usual, I will be using Sparkling Silva, 'Overjoyed' David and Loopy Looper to help me make my predictions. Here's what they code for:
Sparkling Silva - Who I'd be happy to see win.
'Overjoyed' David - My official prediction - who is likely to win.
Loopy Looper - The long shot.

Sound Awards.

Best Achievement in Sound Editing

Argo / Django Unchained / Life of Pi / Skyfall / Zero Dark Thirty

I could offer up something really smart here but I know literally zilch about sound editing. Django Unchained, Skyfall and Zero Dark Thirty were all pretty intense in the sound. I guess Zero Dark Thirty had a lot of sound to deal with, especially in the final scenes. And the 'zero' part of the title pretty much goes with my knowledge of this topic.

AAN: Predicting the Screen Actors Guild Awards with Silva, David and Joe

Coming up tomorrow we have the Screen Actors Guild awards, which in this rather interesting awards season where there's no clear winners for a whole lot of big categories (well, I don't think there is, but then again, I still haven't seen all that much), and these awards probably won't provide much more clarity, just more options. Before I can get into the predictions, here's a refresher on what Silva, David and Joe represent:

Sparkling Silva - Who I'd ideally like to win.

'Overjoyed' David - Who I'm predicting to win.

Loopy Looper - The long shot.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
Argo / The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel / Les Miserables / Lincoln / Silver Linings Playbook
This is a tough category, as they're all great ensemble films in very different ways. I think it'll be a race between Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook, but I think that Silver Linings Playbook will be given the edge, especially considering it now has Oscar nominations in every acting category. However, Lincoln has nominations in all of the acting categories apart from Best Actress. It would be cool if The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel won, coz that has the ensemble cast of all ensemble casts, but Les Miserables has some strong performances across the board. Argo could be a surprise winner.

Do You Hear the People Sing?

Les Miserables (2012) / UK / Out in cinemas now / Directed by Tom Hooper / Written by William Nicholson, based on the musical by Claude-Michel Schonberg and Alain Boublil and the novel by Victor Hugo / Starring Hugh Jackman, Russell Crowe, Anne Hathaway, Amanda Seyfried, Eddie Redmayne, Samantha Barks, Aaron Tveit, Sacha Baron Cohen, Helena Bonham Carter / 157 mins

Les Miserables is a tough egg to crack. For any newbies, going along for a quiet Tuesday matinee of Tom Hooper's film adaptation might find themselves a little disconnected, jaded by the amount of topics it burns through and wondering how people got to be where they are. I am one of those people who are a Les Miserables 'veteran'. A couple of years back, I did the make-up for the stage production that was in town. This was a huge deal for Dannevirke, since the cast could probably be made up of our entire population, the budget was high and we were putting on one of the most professional productions this town has ever seen. While I never actually got to see the production on stage as I spent most of my time backstage, I'd seen enough rehearsals and heard enough of the songs to have them etched into my memory. Going into Les Mis, I was in the mindset that I'd love it - to be honest, this was another one of those War Horse cases but since the end of my blogging is nigh I won't be defending it quite as vociferously - and I did. That's because I knew what the story involved. People must bear in mind that the book is over 1000 pages long, and then the musical is over 3 hours long. So condensing this enormous story with lots going on into a cinematic spectacle for a modern audience was always going to be difficult, and it succeeds, for the most part - probably just for us Les Mis fans.

AAN: Thoughts on the Golden Globes Nominations with Silva, David and Joe

Well well well, the Golden Globes nominations happened. And I'm not sure why they get such a bad wrap. Sure, they nominated The Tourist for giggles and that showed how bad they were. But they've made amends. Remember that they were the ones who nominated Michael Fassbender for Best Actor for Shame last year. And they didn't nominate Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close for giggles. And this year's line-up is pretty okay by my standards. I wouldn't say it is anything ground-breaking but it has created a few interesting possibilities. It is surprising how wide open this awards season is without having too many competitors. Now just in case you've forgotten how my new Annual Awards Nerdism ratings system works, here's a reminder:

Sparkling Silva - I'm generally happy about this line-up. I got what I wanted.
'Overjoyed' David - Meh. I knew it was going to happen. I'm neither here nor there.
Loopy Looper - No. Just no.

Best Motion Picture - Drama:

Argo / Django Unchained / Life of Pi / Lincoln / Zero Dark Thirty

Nothing new here, folks. Although Django Unchained needed that boost. The late release kind of hurt its chance at SAG, so it really did need it. But we can be sure that they'll all make Best Picture at the Oscars, so you may as well put your bets in now.

AAN: Thoughts on the SAG nominations with Silva, David and Joe

Well, the SAGs certainly shook things up, didn't they? Mind you, that's what they do every year. And I guess we can kind of be happy about it. Unless they snub Matthew McConaughey. Therefore no one should be happy about it. Anyway, as you'll know I don't do nominations analysis the normal way. I pick three people to help me express my attitude towards the nominations. Last year I had 'Happy Fassy' for awards I was happy with, 'Lowkey Loki' for those I knew where going to happen, and 'Overwhelmed Owen' for those that I was shocked by. Here's this year's line-up:

Sparkling Silva - Just to creep everyone out. Well, when I am generally happy about the awards I do creepily smile and stuff. But I'm not like Silva. Obviously. So yes, this is for the awards that I'm really happy for.
'Overjoyed' David - The one that shows I knew it would happen, and even though I'm not entirely happy about the choices I'll try to be.
Loopy Looper - First because LOL at JGL's face. Second because that pretty much sums up my anger or surprise over some awards.

So here's my analysis of the SAG nominations:

Best Ensemble:

Argo / The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel / Les Miserables / Lincoln / Silver Linings Playbook

LOL. I actually made a throwaway comment that The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel might make it in to this  category. And then it happened. Who's da man? I'm actually rather happy it made it in, since the movie is rather good, and I've seen it, and the ensemble as a whole is quite phenomenal. Anyway, this whole category went as I thought it would. There's no Zero Dark Thirty, which may hurt its Best Picture chances, but then again, that movie looks like a Jessica Chastain party with a whole lot of other people in the background. Anyway, I'm pretty happy with this line-up, especially with The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel's inclusion.

AAN: What We've Learned From the Past Week's Awards

This past week has been extremely busy. Critics group after critics group has been announcing their favourites, providing the building blocks for what we can expect come the Golden Globes/SAG nominations later on in this week. Instead of going through all of the awards one by one, I'll link them all here (by now you're probably sick to death of hearing about them) and then show how the categories are changing. (NOTE: sorry for the lack of pictures - Blogger is being a MASSIVE asshole and I'm about to smash my computer so I'll give up trying to upload them)

New York Film Critics Online / Boston Society of Film Critics / Los Angeles Film Critics Association / Boston Online Film Critics Association / New York Film Critics Circle / National Board of Review

What we've learned about the Best Picture race:
Zero Dark Thirty topped everything apart from the LA Film Critics awards, so I think it is safe to say that this is pretty much a lock for a nomination, and perhaps a certainty for the win. We'll just wait to see how everything pans out in its wide release and for the Golden Globes to be sure. However, let's not rule out the possibility that either Argo, Les Miserables or Lincoln could win. The LAFCA chose Amour as their winner and The Master as their runner up. They gave The Master a huge boost, which means that it could be a lot more prominent in awards season than originally thought. Amour was also given a boost, so I wouldn't be surprised if it gets given a spot in the Best Picture race.
Other than that, the NBR did give us some alternative picks in their top ten with The Perks of Being a Wallflower and Promised Land making the cut. I'm not entirely sure about the latter since practically nothing has been said about it and I doubt it'll have any traction. Django Unchained was also included, meaning that it could figure into the race, but I'm doubting it will be a major player. And I was definitely surprised and happy to see Looper included!