AAN: Oscar Predictions - Acting and Best Picture

Welcome to the final part of my official Oscar predictions, the big one that this 2013 series of Annual Awards Nerdism has come down to. Tonight, I'll be looking at the Acting and Best Picture awards, complete with poetry. Enjoy!
PAST PREDICTIONS: Sound and Design, 'Bests' and Visuals, Writing and Directing

Just in case you need a refresher on the rankings:
Sparkling Silva - Who I want to win.
'Overjoyed' David - Who will win.
Loopy Looper - Who definitely won't win.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook / Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln / Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables / Joaquin Phoenix in The Master / Denzel Washington in Flight

There's no way this category can possibly surprise,
Daniel Day-Lewis is the winner in everyone's eyes,
Hugh Jackman may have been the perfect Jean Valjean,
Joaquin Phoenix may think that awards are wrong,
Bradley Cooper did everything right,
Denzel probably won't win for Flight,
But there's simply nothing they can do,
Day-Lewis will be adding another Oscar to his two,
For he is pretty much Abraham Lincoln,
And a surprise win would be wishful thinkin'.

I would love for Daniel Day-Lewis to not win for this one (although I haven't seen Lincoln still so I can't judge), but that's not going to happen. There's a sliver of hope for Bradley Cooper if he were to ride on the Silver Linings Playbook wave, even though he lost the Spirit award today. He's still the best thing about that movie. By far. I'm more on Team Jackman, though.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Jessica Chastain in Zero Dark Thirty / Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook / Emmanuelle Riva in Amour / Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild / Naomi Watts in The Impossible

This category caters for the young and old,
But it is pretty hard to tell who'll take the gold,
Naomi Watts brings up the rear,
Quvenzhane Wallis is the spoiler to fear,
Jennifer Lawrence has won most of the awards,
But Jessica Chastain has won lots on her own accord,
While it is very much a race between these two,
Picking Riva seems like the thing to do,
Since all of the others have many chances left,
Riva should win for her beautiful portrayal of death.

This is a very difficult category because there are likely winners coming from every corner. Jennifer Lawrence supposedly has the award locked up but I don't want to believe it since I'm not the hugest fan of her performance in Silver Linings Playbook and she just doesn't seem like a clear winner. Jessica Chastain is supposedly her arch-nemesis in this race and she looks like a better winner, especially because she won just about every critics award (but that didn't mean too much for Kathryn Bigelow). However, as much as I love J-Chas, I can't see her winning just yet. I do, however, envision Emmanuelle Riva winning, which may seem like a longshot to some but again, I'm not dismissing this whole Amour takeover. Let's be honest here - Riva is by far the most deserving. I'll probably end up being wrong, but I'm not sold in Jennifer Lawrence winning tomorrow.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Alan Arkin in Argo / Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook / Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master / Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln / Christoph Waltz in Django Unchained

How to pick a winner when they've all won before?
And there aren't even any surprise awards to go to Amour,
Long ago this was Leo DiCaprio's to win,
But his spot was taken by Alan Arkin,
There won't be an acting award for Argo,
But there might be one for Robert De Niro,
His gold lining will make it three,
Though he could be beaten by Tommy Lee,
This would only make Jones sad of course,
But Philip Seymour Hoffman is the dark horse,
I think they'll go for Christoph Waltz again,
For being Django's bounty hunter friend,
Hopefully he has the award within his reach,
Because all I want is another Waltz acceptance speech.

I'm going to put my money (lol, wut money) where my mouth is and wager that Christoph Waltz will take the award. I mean, he's taken the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, and the only reason he didn't get the SAG was because he wasn't nominated - thanks to the down-to-the-wire release date for Django Unchained. So he's looking like the best prospect out of a wide open field. However, I can see Tommy Lee Jones taking it away because he just seems like the kind of performer the Academy would go for. I have heard whispers about De Niro and Hoffman being possible winners, and I definitely wouldn't dismiss them. The only person I would dismiss is Alan Arkin. I could be wrong about that, though.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

Amy Adams in The Master / Sally Field in Lincoln / Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables / Helen Hunt in The Sessions / Jacki Weaver in Silver Linings Playbook

I don't really need to put this into a rhyme,
Anne Hathaway has won every time,
And certainly nothing will change,
There's no one close in range,
This isn't Amy Adams' year,
Jacki Weaver's presence leaves nothing to fear,
They certainly won't go for Helen Hunt,
Sally Field seems like an unlikely punt,
While Hugh Jackman won't win his,
Anne Hathaway will fly the flag for Les Mis.

LOL to anyone who thinks that Anne Hathaway won't win. And LOL to anyone who thinks she doesn't deserve it.

Best Motion Picture of the Year 

Amour / Argo / Beasts of the Southern Wild / Django Unchained / Les Miserables / Life of Pi / Lincoln / Silver Linings Playbook / Zero Dark Thirty

Here we are, the Best Picture of the Year,
It seems that Argo will get the most cheers,
Even without a Best Director nom,
Which could be where it will all go wrong,
Les Mis probably won't hit the right note,
Life of Pi will miss this boat,
Beasts of the Southern Wild was a nice debut,
But it's chances here are small and few,
I still think there'll be a surprise from Amour,
Though Lincoln's chances are coming to the fore,
Silver Linings Playbook is the big entry from Weinstein and Co,
And could look to take it from Argo,
But my favourite has had a lot of hate,
Zero Dark Thirty seemed to be the favourite out of the gate,
As the season has gone on people have liked it less,
So it won't be the big winner in the press.

This is almost certainly Argo's, but I still don't see it as a clear winner. It is quite the bummer that I don't get to see this until the day after the Oscars. I haven't seen Lincoln and Life of Pi either - they just didn't entice me enough to get my ass over to the cinema. Out of the others, though, I'd rank them like this:
6. Beasts of the Southern Wild
5. Les Miserables
4. Silver Linings Playbook
3. Amour
2. Django Unchained 
1. Zero Dark Thirty
I suppose it is quite the controversial choice to have Zero Dark Thirty topping the range, but it is just everything I want in a movie. Plus, it is possibly the most challenging (aside from Amour) of all the nominees, so if it won, I'd be immensely happy. This is Argo's to lose, though, and I wouldn't be surprised if either Lincoln or Silver Linings Playbook took it away.

What do you think? Who do you think will take out these awards?

AAN: Oscar Predictions - Writing and Directing

Welcome to part three of my official Oscar predictions, the big one that this 2013 series of Annual Awards Nerdism has come down to. Tonight, I'll be looking at the Screenplay and Directing awards, complete with poetry. Enjoy!
PAST PREDICTIONS: Sound and Design, 'Bests' and Visuals

Best Achievement in Directing

Michael Haneke - Amour / Ang Lee - Life of Pi / David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook / Steven Spielberg - Lincoln / Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild

All of the awards have gone to Ben Affleck,
None of the other directors have had an effect,
So this is just a case of wait and see,
A safer bet would probably go with Ang Lee,
Benh Zeitlin had a good debut with Beasts,
But he doesn't have a chance in the least,
David O. Russell won't turn silver to gold,
Since his spot in the race left some out in the cold,
Steven Spielberg's done this all before,
So I have a feeling the Academy will love Amour,
To some this may seem like the longest shot,
But I think Michael Haneke is the best we have got.

Yeah...I'm predicting Michael Haneke to take this out. I could go down the more traditional path and go for Ang Lee (which is likely to happen), or even David O. Russell who could get caught up in the Silver Linings Playbook tidal wave, but I have been envisioning this Amour takeover since day one and I'm not about to take my chips down. This is pretty much the most exciting category we have, though. 

Best Writing, Screenplay Written Directly for the Screen
Michael Haneke - Amour / Quentin Tarantino - Django Unchained / John Gatins - Flight / Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola - Moonrise Kingdom / Mark Boal - Zero Dark Thirty

Will this category have more love for Amour?
They probably won't be loving Flight, that's for sure,
As they were looking for the best original script,
They seemed to love Moonrise Kingdom's indie hit,
Tarantino is back with his drama about slaves,
Throughout the season the awards have come in waves,
If there's one script that has all the control,
It is Zero Dark Thirty's written by Mark Boal,
It will be tough for that to take the prize,
So Django will be the winner in my eyes.

I think Django Unchained pretty much has this in the bag (pun fully not intended). I would like to see Zero Dark Thirty take it out for the meticulous attention to detail. I have a feeling that Moonrise Kingdom could be a spoiler.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published
Chris Terrio - Argo / Lucy Alibar, Benh Zeitlin - Beasts of the Southern Wild / David Magee - Life of Pi / Tony Kushner - Lincoln / David O. Russell - Silver Linings Playbook

If we were going by the Best Picture rule,
Argo will be the biggest fish in the pool,
Lincoln took on the story of Honest Abe,
And he's also emerging as a category fave,
Silver Linings Playbook could possibly spoil,
Especially since the Academy treated it like a royal,
So this is a three way tie,
Since they won't go for Life of Pi,
Nor for the magic of Beasts of the Southern Wild,
Since the best part about that is probably the child.

I'm fairly sure that if Argo goes for Best Picture, then it will probably have to win this category too, since it is M.I.A everywhere else (such a strange predicament we have here). However, If I were to leave this for chance I would say that this is very much a race between Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook - and I hope that the latter will be given the edge. A seriously good screenplay right there.

What do you think? Who do you think will take out these awards? Tomorrow I'll be back with the acting awards and of course, Best Picture. See you then!

AAN: Oscar Predictions - The 'Bests' and the Visuals

Welcome to part two of my official Oscar predictions, the big one that this 2013 series of Annual Awards Nerdism has come down to. Tonight, I'll be looking at the 'Bests' (Best Animated Feature Film of the Year, Best Foreign Language Film of the Year, Best Documentary - Features) and the Visuals (Best Achievement in Cinematography, Best Achievement in Editing, Best Achievement in Visual Effects). NOTE: I'm not going to attempt the awards for the Shorts because I'll end up looking like a fool.
PAST PREDICTIONS: Sound and Design

The 'Bests' Awards

Best Animated Feature Film of the Year

Brave / Frankenweenie / Paranorman / The Pirates! Band of Misfits / Wreck-It Ralph

Looks like this will be another Pixar year, even if every man and his dog is intent on calling Brave a bad film because it isn't as good as every other Pixar film. To be honest, this is still one of my absolute favourite films of 2012, mainly because it has a better message than most other animated films. And yeah, that's all I have to say about that. I'll be a little surprised if Brave loses. Plus, it'll be exciting when it does because then Brenda Chapman will be the first woman to win the award. Exciting!

AAN: Where the Awards Stand After the Guilds and BAFTAs

I haven't really covered this year's awards season as much as I would have liked - hell, I just haven't found the time to review Silver Linings Playbook even though I saw it over a week ago - but I've found it a little hard to keep up to the minute with this stuff. So I've waited until after the BAFTAs to throw in my two cents on how the season is going as we head into the final straight. Here's my simple guide to what has been happening...

Best Picture - Well Argo pretty much has this one in the bag. With the Golden Globe, SAG, PGA, DGA and BAFTA under it's belt, there's pretty much no stopping it. I do think there is a little leeway for a spoiler from Lincoln or Zero Dark Thirty or even Amour. I mean, I won't be surprised if it doesn't win.

Best Actor - Yeah, Daniel Day-Lewis has pretty much got this as well. I haven't seen Lincoln but I still get so angry about the fact that he is winning over Hugh Jackman and Bradley Cooper who were both brilliant. Ah well. There's literally no room for anyone else to win in this category.

Best Actress - As has been said, this is pretty much a race between Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain. I mean, the media is now making up rumours that they hate each other but let's be honest - it isn't a big deal if neither of them win it, and I'm sure they're beyond catty behaviour. I like Jessica Chastain's performance 1000x more than Jennifer Lawrence's (that's not because I love J-Chas more than life itself), but they both have a million more chances to win in the future. However, Emmanuelle Riva won the BAFTA tonight and I think this could happen again come Oscar night. Like really. But I still hope that J-Chas wins.

Best Supporting Actor - Christoph Waltz has won the Golden Globe and the BAFTA, with Tommy Lee Jones winning the SAG, probably because Waltz wasn't nominated. Another Oscar for Waltz? Bet on it.

Best Supporting Actress - Biggest plot twist ever: Anne Hathaway doesn't win.
Not in this lifetime.

Best Director - This whole category makes me LOL so hard. "Oh look, Ben Affleck just won another award - oh wait, he's not even nominated for the Oscar". Neither is Kathryn Bigelow, who would be my other guess. So really, this race is going to be down to the wire. I'm thinking Michael Haneke will win (I have this thing that Amour is going to win literally everything, like including Best Animated Film). None of the directors who have been nominated for the rest - Ang Lee, Steven Spielberg or David O. Russell - seem to stand out, though Ang Lee seems to be the sensible bet. This is mind boggling stuff, which makes it all the more exciting.

Other little notes:
-Django Unchained's screenplay is getting lots of love. The WGA's can't provide much more clarity on that but I think QT has it in the bag.
-Skyfall seems to be all the rage. Even though it isn't nominated for much that isn't on the technical side, I'd see it taking a few of those awards. Specifically Best Score, which it seems to be doing rather well with.
-Brave is the front runner for the Animated section? Who knows. I hope it is.
-On a BAFTA related note, so happy that Juno Temple got the Rising Star award. She's amazing.
-I actually can't wait for the Indie Spirits this year. Matthew McConaughey as a double nominee? That's how it should be done!

What are you thinking now? Got any front-runners/favourites sorted?

AAN: Predicting the Screen Actors Guild Awards with Silva, David and Joe

Coming up tomorrow we have the Screen Actors Guild awards, which in this rather interesting awards season where there's no clear winners for a whole lot of big categories (well, I don't think there is, but then again, I still haven't seen all that much), and these awards probably won't provide much more clarity, just more options. Before I can get into the predictions, here's a refresher on what Silva, David and Joe represent:

Sparkling Silva - Who I'd ideally like to win.

'Overjoyed' David - Who I'm predicting to win.

Loopy Looper - The long shot.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture:
Argo / The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel / Les Miserables / Lincoln / Silver Linings Playbook
This is a tough category, as they're all great ensemble films in very different ways. I think it'll be a race between Lincoln and Silver Linings Playbook, but I think that Silver Linings Playbook will be given the edge, especially considering it now has Oscar nominations in every acting category. However, Lincoln has nominations in all of the acting categories apart from Best Actress. It would be cool if The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel won, coz that has the ensemble cast of all ensemble casts, but Les Miserables has some strong performances across the board. Argo could be a surprise winner.

AAN: Thoughts on the Golden Globes Nominations with Silva, David and Joe

Well well well, the Golden Globes nominations happened. And I'm not sure why they get such a bad wrap. Sure, they nominated The Tourist for giggles and that showed how bad they were. But they've made amends. Remember that they were the ones who nominated Michael Fassbender for Best Actor for Shame last year. And they didn't nominate Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close for giggles. And this year's line-up is pretty okay by my standards. I wouldn't say it is anything ground-breaking but it has created a few interesting possibilities. It is surprising how wide open this awards season is without having too many competitors. Now just in case you've forgotten how my new Annual Awards Nerdism ratings system works, here's a reminder:

Sparkling Silva - I'm generally happy about this line-up. I got what I wanted.
'Overjoyed' David - Meh. I knew it was going to happen. I'm neither here nor there.
Loopy Looper - No. Just no.

Best Motion Picture - Drama:

Argo / Django Unchained / Life of Pi / Lincoln / Zero Dark Thirty

Nothing new here, folks. Although Django Unchained needed that boost. The late release kind of hurt its chance at SAG, so it really did need it. But we can be sure that they'll all make Best Picture at the Oscars, so you may as well put your bets in now.

AAN: Thoughts on the SAG nominations with Silva, David and Joe

Well, the SAGs certainly shook things up, didn't they? Mind you, that's what they do every year. And I guess we can kind of be happy about it. Unless they snub Matthew McConaughey. Therefore no one should be happy about it. Anyway, as you'll know I don't do nominations analysis the normal way. I pick three people to help me express my attitude towards the nominations. Last year I had 'Happy Fassy' for awards I was happy with, 'Lowkey Loki' for those I knew where going to happen, and 'Overwhelmed Owen' for those that I was shocked by. Here's this year's line-up:

Sparkling Silva - Just to creep everyone out. Well, when I am generally happy about the awards I do creepily smile and stuff. But I'm not like Silva. Obviously. So yes, this is for the awards that I'm really happy for.
'Overjoyed' David - The one that shows I knew it would happen, and even though I'm not entirely happy about the choices I'll try to be.
Loopy Looper - First because LOL at JGL's face. Second because that pretty much sums up my anger or surprise over some awards.

So here's my analysis of the SAG nominations:

Best Ensemble:

Argo / The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel / Les Miserables / Lincoln / Silver Linings Playbook

LOL. I actually made a throwaway comment that The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel might make it in to this  category. And then it happened. Who's da man? I'm actually rather happy it made it in, since the movie is rather good, and I've seen it, and the ensemble as a whole is quite phenomenal. Anyway, this whole category went as I thought it would. There's no Zero Dark Thirty, which may hurt its Best Picture chances, but then again, that movie looks like a Jessica Chastain party with a whole lot of other people in the background. Anyway, I'm pretty happy with this line-up, especially with The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel's inclusion.