Monday, December 10, 2012

AAN: What We've Learned From the Past Week's Awards

This past week has been extremely busy. Critics group after critics group has been announcing their favourites, providing the building blocks for what we can expect come the Golden Globes/SAG nominations later on in this week. Instead of going through all of the awards one by one, I'll link them all here (by now you're probably sick to death of hearing about them) and then show how the categories are changing. (NOTE: sorry for the lack of pictures - Blogger is being a MASSIVE asshole and I'm about to smash my computer so I'll give up trying to upload them)

New York Film Critics Online / Boston Society of Film Critics / Los Angeles Film Critics Association / Boston Online Film Critics Association / New York Film Critics Circle / National Board of Review

What we've learned about the Best Picture race:
Zero Dark Thirty topped everything apart from the LA Film Critics awards, so I think it is safe to say that this is pretty much a lock for a nomination, and perhaps a certainty for the win. We'll just wait to see how everything pans out in its wide release and for the Golden Globes to be sure. However, let's not rule out the possibility that either Argo, Les Miserables or Lincoln could win. The LAFCA chose Amour as their winner and The Master as their runner up. They gave The Master a huge boost, which means that it could be a lot more prominent in awards season than originally thought. Amour was also given a boost, so I wouldn't be surprised if it gets given a spot in the Best Picture race.
Other than that, the NBR did give us some alternative picks in their top ten with The Perks of Being a Wallflower and Promised Land making the cut. I'm not entirely sure about the latter since practically nothing has been said about it and I doubt it'll have any traction. Django Unchained was also included, meaning that it could figure into the race, but I'm doubting it will be a major player. And I was definitely surprised and happy to see Looper included!

What we've learned about the Best Actor race:
Daniel Day-Lewis took four out of six of these awards, but for some reason, I keep thinking that he won't win the award. Alas, I'll probably be wrong. It will be impossible to beat him. The NBR went for Bradley Cooper, which was a surprise. I'm starting to think that he might get into the Best Picture race, but he'd need a boost from both Golden Globes and SAG to do that - and noise for Silver Linings Playbook would have to be loud. The LAFCA unleashed some more love upon The Master, naming Joaquin Phoenix as their Best Actor - could he get in despite his vocal distaste towards the Oscars? Denis Lavant was the runner up for his work in Holy Motors. With some passionate campaigning, he could get in, but that would very unlikely.

What we've learned about the Best Actress race:
Jessica Chastain is emerging as a front-runner, and so is Emmanuelle Riva. Chastain got two or the awards and Riva got three. Again, we'll have to wait for the SAG to have their go. Rachel Weisz got some love from the NYFCC for her work in The Deep Blue Sea. It may be a little problematic for her to make it to the Oscars since so few people were even aware that her film was eligible. While I wouldn't rule her out, I think that it is incredibly unlikely that she'll get nominated. Jennifer Lawrence, the former front-runner, tied for the Best Actress award from the LAFCA with Riva. She's a definite lock for the Oscar nomination, but I'd say this is very much Chastain's race to win.

What we've learned about the Best Supporting Actor race:
This is very much anyone's game, with only Tommy Lee Jones walking away with more than one award for his work in Lincoln. Perhaps I should add him into my predictions as a lock for the category. Matthew McConaughey was given another boost by NYFCC for his work in both Magic Mike and Bernie. I definitely think he'll be a lock for Magic Mike, providing that he gets either a Golden Globe or SAG nomination. The team from Django Unchained got a boost with Leonardo DiCaprio (the current front-runner, even though barely anyone has seen it so they can't back up that claim) getting the NBR and Christoph Waltz being runner up to Dwight Henry from Beasts of the Southern Wild at the LAFCA. But the prize for the best award of the week goes to the Boston Society of Film Critics who gave their award to Ezra Miller for The Perks of Being a Wallflower. I hope that this award goes much further, because that would just be awesome. Even though I haven't seen the film.

What we've learned about the Best Supporting Actress race: 
This award is obviously Anne Hathaway's for the winning, but even though no-one else stands a chance, these awards have been mixing it up a little. Annie got the Boston Online, New York Online, and runner-up to Amy Adams in The Master at the LAFCA for Les Miserables and The Dark Knight Rises (yeeeeeeeah!). Apparently Amy's win was quite the surprise since haters are hating on her work. Then again, I think the LAFCA was just crazy over The Master. Alas, she's on shaky ground. NBR gave a boost to Ann Dowd in Compliance, and I think that she does have a pretty solid chance of getting in. Sally Field has emerged as a possible challenger to Annie, with two wins from NYFCC and Boston Society. However, everything is pretty much the same as it was.

What we've learned about the Best Director race: 
I'm fairly certain that Kathryn Bigelow will win this award. The only group that didn't choose her to win was LAFCA, who went with Paul Thomas Anderson for The Master, and even then they chose her for runner up. Not only is she the only woman to win the Best Director Oscar, she'll win it twce. And I promise that if she does, I will do everything in my power to become a filmmaker. What a woman.

Other things of note that we've learned:
There's not much else to say other than the LAFCA and Boston Online both decided to adorn love upon Roger Deakins' work on cinematography in Skyfall. Here's hoping he can get that Oscar. Also, the NBR awarded Rian Johnson and Looper for Best Original Screenplay. Now that it has entered the fray, I hope it can stay there.

In a couple of days we'll find out how these awards have altered the race - and then I'll change my Oscar predictions accordingly. Until then, I hope you're considering my blogathon and what do you think of these awards? Where do they leave you?


  1. I think you are largely spot on Stevee.

    While Chastain is building momentum, I still think Lawrence is the deserved frontrunner, and she's $1.50 in the odds compared to Chastain's $3.

    I hope you are right about Bigelow too, I took her at $21 odds last week.

    Sorry for all the betting discussion! I do find they are rather helpful though, and there's also some serious money to be made at times :)

    I'm rather intrigued for:
    Best Picture (still a 4 horse race in my books)
    Actress (Chastain v Lawrence)
    Supporting Actor (Tommy Lee v The rest)

    1. Ah, I wish I could do some of that Oscar betting!

      We'll have to see how the Chastain vs. Lawrence thing pans out at the SAGs. My money is still on Chastain.

      There are some interesting races coming up, though! Makes it all the more exciting.

  2. Seeing what SAG comes back with later this week will be interesting for sure, especially since they can get awful creative with "Best Ensemble".

    One thing though, even though it's in your banner, I wouldn't pay a whole lot of attention to what The HFPA does with The Golden Globes. Year after year it's becoming more and more apparent that they're a sliver above fans, and the sway they hold on the eventual Oscar outcome is dwindling by the year (despite awards for Best Drama and Best Comedy, they've predicted the eventual Best Picture winner only twice in the last seven years).

    Fun times though - certainly leaving me really anxious to catch up with ZERO DARK THIRTY!

    1. I think this year we have a strong line-up for 'Best Ensemble' - one that may not reflect the Best Picture race. I mean, at any rate, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel definitely deserves to be up there, and I hope it does! Anyway, the SAGs will be highly influential.

      Eh, I'm not overly bothered with The Golden Globes. Either way, they will have some effect on the overall race and they'll be fun to watch and stuff. As long as the people I want to get in get in, I'll be happy!

      And yes - Zero Dark Thirty has me extremely excited!

  3. Great post Stevee. I agree that Hathway is a lock for best suppourting actress. I think "Argo", "Lincoln", "Les Miserables" and "Silver Linings Playbook" are the top of the best picture winners so far I'm also glad to see that "Compliance" is getting some critical award love too

    1. IDK - I think Zero Dark Thirty is probably the current front-runner alongside Lincoln. I haven't seen Compliance, but I'm happy to see a smaller film getting this kind of love!

  4. I too, hope Ezra goes further with that nomination. He really stole Perks. I don't see how anyone could hate on Amy Adams for The Master. She was great, there's a certain scene with Phillip Seymour Hoffman that's burned into my memory that pretty much secured her Oscar nom for me. I just hope no one forgets Argo, that film was beyond fantastic, but I'm afraid the summer release may hurt it in chances of winning.

    1. That role is perfect for him.

      I think I know what scene you're talking about - I accidentally stumbled across that one.

      Argo still has a pretty good chance, but I honestly think it'll be a case of craploads of nominations, and then everyone will forget about it. Like True Grit a couple of years back.

  5. Zero Dark Thirty gained a lot of momentum this past week to become a frontrunner in three major categories. If I have to guess right now, I will probably say Lincoln and ZDT will take the top four though I am much more interested in nominations right now than who wins. All the Guilds will probably make it much more clear and I agree with Ryan. Globes are kinda weird.

    1. Yeah, I'm more excited for the nominations too. It is definitely a race between Lincoln and ZDT, though.

  6. I still think Les Miserables wins the Best Picture Oscar, but who knows? This should be a fun Oscar race, because SO many categories are wide open. Even Best Animated Feature Film isn't a lock.

    1. I'm not sure about Les Mis - it is currently sitting at 55/100 on Metacritic with 9 reviews. It has lost a fair bit of momentum. But yes, everything is wide open! I love it!

  7. I am curious to see some of the big names, like Django, Les Mis and Zero Dark Thirty, and see what the big deal is all about!
    For me, the most interesting race is Supporting actor, but the Best Picture and Actress race is also interesting!

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