AAN: Oscar Predictions - Best Picture

Welcome to part five of my official Oscar predictions - this season of Annual Awards Nerdism is just about done. Tonight I will rank the 7 Best Picture nominations that I've seen (in order of how much I like them) and end with my final prediction for the big winner, but first, I have a few words about the Oscars this year.
PAST PREDICTIONS: Acting; Writing and Directing; the 'Bests' and Visuals; Sound and Design.

If I've been taught anything about this past year of film, it is that I am big on emotional manipulation. When I go to the movies, I like to have something to show for it when I first come out of the cinemas. Two films that made me show my experience clearly were The Help and War Horse. If you saw me after seeing those films, you would have thought that someone had stabbed me in the heart or something, because the tears just kept coming and coming. And when you cry in a movie, you obviously got something out of it. So where people were turned off by the emotional manipulation, I succumbed to it, and as I watched more and more 2011 films I started to find it was a vital ingredient. Which is perhaps why I didn't take after The Descendants, a film with barely any sentimentality, or I wasn't convinced by Moneyball's emotional coldness. I need emotions - I have to be able to connect with a film, which I believe is the main basis of this blog.

Anyway, enough of all of that deep stuff. A lot of people have been turning off the Oscars this year. Even 'prominent awards bloggers' (what does that even mean?) have been turning off in the Oscars. While I admit that I'm nowhere near as excited for the awards as I was last year, I'm still very much willing to jump to the defence of them. Sure, there are some strange nominations this year. Sure, the ones that did get nominated weren't the most exciting choices. Sure, this awards season has been predictable. But as I said before, I like emotions. And the Oscars are full of those. I like watching the reactions, the gushing speeches, the applause - I like seeing people rewarded, because film-making obviously is hard work, and when you make a movie good enough for the Academy, you did something right. I just think it is a magical day, no matter what happens. That probably stems from my dream to actually win an Oscar one day...I honestly couldn't think of anything cooler. Whatever the outcome of tomorrow, I'll still be checking my phone like crazy in my last class of the day (well, providing the teacher is distracted enough), I'll be rushing home after school to hopefully get a good online stream, I'll probably be squealing over some good wins. Because I'm cliché like that.

AAN: Oscar Predictions - Writing and Directing

Welcome to part three of my official Oscar predictions, the big one that this season of Annual Awards Nerdism has boiled down to. Tonight I'll be looking at Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Original Screenplay and Best Director. 
PAST PREDICTIONS: 'Bests' and Visuals; Sound and Design.

Just in case you are not familiar with how Fassy, Loki and Owen are used for predictions, here is a refresher:
Happy Fassy - If this person wins, I will let out a squeal in my biology class that will probably get my phone taken off me...why do I have to have school while the Oscars are on?
Lowkey Loki - This is the only prediction you should really listen to, because it is the one who I think will take home the prize.
Overwhelmed Owen - There ain't no way this movie is going to win that prize.

Best Writing, Screenplay Based on Material Previously Produced or Published

Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash - The Descendants / John Logan - Hugo / George Clooney, Grant Heslov, Beau Willimon - The Ides of March / Steven Zallian, Aaron Sorkin, Stan Chevrin - Moneyball / Bridget O'Connor, Peter Straughan - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

I have not seen the March that has Ides,
and I still fail to get my tongue around Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy,
but the film loving Hugo left me impressed,
I was one of the few who thought The Descendants was a mess,
Moneyball was the one who united two screen-writing Gods,
since we're talking baseball it should have the best odds,
but The Descendants has George Clooney and kids,
so I wouldn't be surprised if it actually wins,
I'll just have to sit in my bitter disappointment party alone,
and wish that the winner was really Hugo.

While I did like The Descendants to some degree, I'm not one of the ones who has been singing it's praises at each corner. I actually think that it is probably the most overrated film of 2011. The screenplay itself was just okay...it did well with the realism and the lack of sentimentality, but I did not think that the character of Sid was very well-written at all. In fact, he is one of the worst written characters I've seen in quite some time. So I have to wonder why so many people love this film, because he was a real deal-breaker for me. (and rant is over) The Descendants has a good chance of taking this award since it won the WGA, but I wouldn't count out Moneyball since Steven Zallian and Aaron Sorkin did such a bloody awesome job with it. I think Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy could pull an upset, too. Look to this as one of the more exciting categories of this year's Oscars.

BAFTA Predictions w/ Fassy, Loki and Owen

Well...here we go. We're on the home stretch. The BAFTAs are generally my favourite awards of the season because the Brits usually know what they're talking about, even though there are a few oddball nominations here. Now, I know you might be a little sick of awards talk (even though I think it has been curiously absent and it is more about the backlash this year), but bear with me. My pageviews/comments have been down for a little bit, and I don't think this post will help with that...but it needs to be done.

Now, a refresher on the way Fassy, Loki and Owen are used for predictions:
Happy Fassy: Who I want to win, but doesn't necessarily mean that they will win.
Lowkey Loki: Who will win. My final prediction.
Overwhelmed Owen: The complete longshot.

Best Film:
The Artist / The Descendants / Drive / The Help / Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

I'm going for Drive all the way, as I'm still fuming over how ignored it was at the Oscars. Actually, I think that Drive and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, two films which failed to get a Best Picture nomination at the Oscars have a better chance of winning this award than actual nominee The Help. I'm surprised that the BAFTAs loved The Help as much as they did, but I can't see it taking many awards apart from the acting ones. As for the actual winner, it'd be stupid not to pick The Artist, as that seems impossible. But I wouldn't be surprised if the most overrated movie of the year The Descendants takes the award...every seems to love that one for some strange reason.

Alexander Korda Award for Outstanding British Film of the Year:
My Week with Marilyn / Senna / Shame / Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy / We Need to Talk About Kevin

This is possibly one of the hardest categories to pick, considering how much quality there is in it. I think that My Week with Marilyn is the longshot considering it was the lowest rated out of all of them, but the fact that it has a lot of nominations in the acting categories could mean that it isn't such a longshot. Alas, my heart is with Senna, my favourite film of 2011, and I could definitely see it taking out the award. However, with Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy having a Best Film nomination and all, it has the advantage over everyone. I wouldn't go past Shame and We Need to Talk About Kevin to take away the award, though...can they all just win?!

THE REST AFTER THE JUMP!

AAN: SAG predictions w/ Fassy, Loki and Owen

NOTE: I hope you all like the new look. There's a few things that I will tweak tomorrow...I got a bit sick of looking at the template designer. What do you think of it?

Coming right off the back of the surprising Oscar nominations comes the equally surprising SAG awards. These awards are basically the last big Hollywood precursor awards before the Oscars, and usually whatever wins the Best Ensemble manages to get Best Picture too. In fact, whoever wins here will almost certainly go forth to get the little golden man. I'm getting in early to predict the SAGs, which are coming up in three days, with the help of Happy Fassy, Lowkey Loki and Overwhelmed Owen. Here are their meanings for the predictions:
Happy Fassy - Who I want to win. Doesn't mean that they will win, though.
Lowkey Loki - Who will win. The only prediction that should be taken seriously.
Overwhelmed Owen - Who won't win. If they do, it would be one hell of a surprise.

Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture
The Artist / Bridesmaids / The Descendants / The Help / Midnight in Paris 

I know that The Help has no chance of winning Best Picture, especially when The Artist is around. But I think that SAG will go for The Help considering what a strong showing of great performances from women it has. What helps its case further is the fact that it has three individual cast members nominated: Viola Davis, Jessica Chastain and Octavia Spencer. And beyond them, even more of the actresses could have been nominated (especially Bryce Dallas Howard, but I guess she was too mean). The Artist should give it a real run for it's money, so I wouldn't be too shocked if that took the top prize. If Midnight in Paris' 'ensemble' had all of the really great people in it (like Corey Stoll, Tom Hiddleston, Alison Pill...), then I'd be campaigning for that a lot more, but my heart is with The Help. The Descendants and Bridesmaids virtually have no chance.

The rest after the jump!

AAN: My Thoughts on the Oscar Nominations w/ Fassy, Loki and Owen

So, I got up at 2.30am this morning to watch my first Oscar nominations being announced.
This is all I remember:
-Wondering how Max von Sydow came out of nowhere for that nomination.
-Being over the moon about Jessica Chastain's nomination, but getting more excited when I saw her picture was from The Tree of Life than her nomination actually being for The Help. Dunno why.
-Actually squealing when Rooney Mara got nominated. So loud that my puppy came in and barked at me and I woke up the whole house. Awkward.
-NO MICHAEL FASSBENDER?!
-Ummmmmmmmmmmmm...Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close? LOL wut.
-Not being able to sleep until 4.30am because I was thinking over how the hell I could write this post, all the snubs and ranting with people on Facebook about it. If I was talking to you after the nominations, I was trying to get to sleep, but I could only count so many sheep (lyrical genius).

I slaved on a post like this ALL DAY last year and no one read it, so I'm a bit hesitant to go into too much detail. But I have waited until the talk has simmered down (and I went to Palmerston North today to see War Horse so that took away most of my day), so hopefully you still might have some interest. Anyway, hopefully you remember what Happy (well, not so happy anymore) Fassy, Lowkey Loki and Overwhelmed Owen mean. If not:
Happy Fassy - I am completely content with these nominations.
Lowkey Loki - Meh. I can't decide whether I'm happy or angry about these.
Overwhelmed Owen - Get. OUT.

Here we go...

Best Motion Picture of the Year

The Artist / The Descendants / Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close / The Help / Hugo / Midnight in Paris / Moneyball / The Tree of Life / War Horse
Predictions right: 6 out of 9. Didn't put War Horse and The Tree of Life in my final prediction of six, but put them in my second tier predictions (if that makes sense). But Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close only existed in my November predictions.

There's one thing I'm happy about here: I've watched six of these movies, which is better than I usually do. Moneyball comes out in three weeks, so I'll be watching that asap. The Artist may not make it to any cinemas near me. And Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close? Guess I'll have to see that now. I remember thinking that The Help and War Horse probably wouldn't get nominated because their RT ratings were in the 70% range. But no, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, with the 48% rating, gets in. Instead of the likes of Drive, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo...anything, really. I'm happy with the other eight nominees (well, not so happy about The Descendants but it was going to happen anyway), but the fact that there are only nine nominees and Extremely Loud was the one to take the ninth spot...it just makes me really peeved off. So that'd be a Lowkey Loki, thanks to that movie dragging things down (although I haven't seen it - I should stop being so mean).
But yay for The Tree of Life!

Best Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

Demián Bichir for A Better Life / George Clooney for The Descendants / Jean Dujardin for The Artist / Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy / Brad Pitt for Moneyball
Predictions right: 3 out of 5. No Bichir or Oldman (thought he'd miss out by a hair).

I honestly thought they'd nominate Michael Fassbender. In fact, this is much like what happened with Christopher Nolan last year. I put up a Facebook status saying that he got a DGA nod and that he'd obviously get an Oscar nomination. But no. With Fassy, I told someone that if he didn't get nominated I'd go all Magneto on the voters. I only said that half-heartedly, because I didn't expect him to get snubbed. However, it happened, and that makes me extremely sad and incredibly angry. Maybe it is because the voters are just jealous of what he has and they don't. Leonardo DiCaprio also didn't get nominated. If he did, I would have just been like 'meh', but I feel really sorry for him. He tried his little heart out in that movie (I'm guessing), but at least I don't need to make a special point of seeing it in cinemas next week. However, what about Bichir? Talk about a nomination like Javier Bardem in last year's Biutiful. And I'm glad that Gary Oldman FINALLY got a nomination. As for the other three, we knew it was going to happen. Now I just hope George Clooney doesn't win.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

Glenn Close for Albert Nobbs / Viola Davis for The Help / Rooney Mara for The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo / Meryl Streep for The Iron Lady / Michelle Williams for My Week with Marilyn
Predictions right: 4 out of 5. Left Rooney out because I wasn't positive it could happen.

I was so so so so happy when Rooney got nominated! But of all people for her to take the place of, I thought it would have been Glenn Close, not Tilda Swinton. Oh well. It is a little sad that Rooney got the nomination while Noomi Rapace got next to nothing for her Lisbeth Salander, but Rooney was freaking awesome so it doesn't matter. Rooney basically makes this category for me...as for the others, well, we knew it was all going to happen. I don't know how you could possibly pick between them. Although I would have loved to have seen some Kirsten Dunst love for Melancholia.

Best Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

Kenneth Branagh for My Week with Marilyn / Jonah Hill for Moneyball / Nick Nolte for Warrior / Christopher Plummer for Beginners / Max von Sydow for Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close
Predictions right: 4 out of 5. Anyone who predicted Max von Sydow deserves a medal.

I thought it was a risky move putting Nick Nolte into my predictions for Warrior, but it paid off. Max von Sydow, however? I may have seen it back in November when I thought Extremely Loud was going to be a good movie and whatnot, but I thought that Albert Brooks had it locked down. Not to be. No Brooks, which practically shut out the very deserving Drive. I've said time and time again that there were so many great options that everyone was refusing to go with, and the Oscars went that way, too. It is pretty weird that Jonah Hill is now 'Oscar nominee Jonah Hill', but I guess the time had to come. Anyway, we all know that Christopher Plummer is going to win, and it better happen that way.

Best Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role 

Bérénice Bejo for The Artist / Jessica Chastain for The Help / Melissa McCarthy for Bridesmaids / Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs / Octavia Spencer for The Help
Predictions right: 4 out of 5. Honestly didn't think they'd go with Melissa McCarthy.

It all started with that Emmy. And then everyone decided that it would be a great idea to campaign Melissa McCarthy for Best Supporting Actress. I kept telling myself that it wouldn't work because Oscars don't generally go for comedies, but it happened. While I should be happy that the Oscars are making a change, I just can't go along with this nomination. Especially when it came at the expense of Shailene Woodley, who was probably the only thing I really liked about The Descendants. Who also out-acted George Clooney, who is probably going to win the fucking Oscar this year. But at least we have Jessica Chastain, who just so happens to be the definition of perfect. Look at it this way: this is the day when Jessica got her first ever Oscar nomination. We can look back on this day in our old age and she'll probably be like Meryl Streep.

Everything else after the jump!

The Short Life of an Oscar Hit

When Steven Spielberg got up to present Best Picture at last year's Oscars, he said this: "In a moment, one of these ten movies will join a list that includes On the Waterfront, Midnight Cowboy, The Godfather and The Deer Hunter. The other nine will join a list that includes The Grapes of Wrath, Citizen Kane, The Graduate and Raging Bull!" Among the films that joined the latter list were Inception, The Social Network, and Black Swan. The film that joined the former list was The King's Speech. Anyone remember that film? Does anyone still talk about it today in a conversation about something other than why it shouldn't have won? Has it left a mark on cinematic history? Does it deserve to be in a list that includes The Godfather? If you'd have asked the latter two questions this time last year, lots of people would have said yes. Now, reflecting on last year's Oscar season, most people would have given the award to anything but The King's Speech.

Here's the thing with awards season: everyone gets quite obsessed with a set of movies, and they're all that matters for a long time. The producers and advertising team manipulate you into thinking these are the best movies ever by drowning their TV spots in "WINNER OF..." "★★★★★!" "UP FOR X OSCARS!" They'll play the most epic orchestral music they can find, show you plenty of tears and hugs and sentiment. The posters won't be advertising the movie...they'll be advertising all the awards it has and the awards it is hoping to get. I am one of those people who does get easily manipulated by awards season advertising...I admit, I was taken in by the TV spots of The King's Speech with Colin Firth announcing "because I have a voice!", going as far to Facebook the quote and say that it was a magical movie. I loved seeing the triumphant looking advertisements for The Fighter and probably got more inspiration from them than I did from the actual movie. 127 Hours had me crying at the very mention of it's name amongst all of the Oscar buzz - not because it was bad, but it was exactly the type of human hardship movie that Oscar likes so much and that was manipulative. I spent around two months of last year talking non-stop about these movies. Now, they'd be lucky to get into the conversation.

It isn't because they're bad movies, because, in fact, I liked all of the ten nominees, and held at least five of them in particular high esteem, but there isn't really any burning need for me to keep talking about them now. Basically, my relationship with these movies ended long ago. With the exception of Winter's Bone (I do own it - I actually own all of the nominees - but just haven't got around to watching it again), I've seen each of last year's nominees at least twice. I watched them when they first came out, and then again when they came out on DVD. After their DVD release though, I haven't watched most of them again. In fact, the only ones that I've watched since then are Inception, Black Swan and The Social Network, three films which I loved to death and had their fair share of Oscar success, but didn't get the big prize. These are three films which I feel have lived out past the awards season and people still talk about them a bit today - and why is that? Inception for the multiple questions surrounding the plot and the big debate over the end, Black Swan for it's stirring look at how someone can transform and Darren Aronofsky's freaking awesome direction, and The Social Network for being one of the best modern movies ever, taking a look at the phenomenon that is Facebook. But what is The King's Speech? It tells a nice enough story about a King with a stutter who eventually overcame his fear, featuring splendid performances from Colin Firth, Helena Bonham Carter and Geoffrey Rush. Problem is, while I don't have much of a problem with the odd period biopic, they don't challenge cinema in any way. They're doing what has been done for ages, and yet they still get accolades. But once those accolades are over, people are unlikely to remember them, because they were too safe.

Let's take 2011, for example. With the Oscar nominations just around the corner, there'll be a lot of deserving movies that will be missing out. As I said in my review of The Descendants, it is a film that will be popular during awards season but people will forget about it just like that. I imagine that would be the same case for films like Moneyball or War Horse. However, Hollywood is showing a bit of a change - they're not so keen to support period biopics like The Iron Lady, J. Edgar or My Week with Marilyn unless it is for the performances at the front. There are a few odd films making their way into Oscar contention, like The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo (even though Fincher and Co. are trying everything they can to stop it from happening), shockingly an R-rated comedy, Bridesmaids, is making some waves and silent film The Artist is the front-runner to win Best Picture. I have to wonder whether this film might become another The King's Speech, even though it is silent and in black and white which provides a bit of difference, but other than that, is it really that special? Who knows?

2011 has been an odd year in cinema, which is most likely what it will be remembered for - and it would be nice if the Oscar nominations could reflect that as they become the first segment of cinematic history that people will look at in the future. Yet, I can't see the Academy showering love upon Terrence Malick's beautiful, polarizing The Tree of Life. Or what about Steve McQueen's NC-17 look at sex addiction in Shame? Or maybe the 'film event of a generation', the wonderful Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2? The wonderful Nikhat mentioned that 2011 was a nostalgia-filled year, with films like Midnight in Paris, Drive, Super 8 and Hugo...these are films that should stand the test of time because they realise times from the past and teach us modern people about them and what we can learn from them. I know it is impossible to accurately predict the future, but the Oscars shouldn't keep rewarding the best movies of the past two months and start thinking about the movies that will factor in as some of the best movies of all time.

I've always wondered how something like An American in Paris won Best Picture over A Streetcar Named Desire. Or Chariots of Fire over Raiders of the Lost Ark. Or Forrest Gump (a good movie) over the better The Shawshank Redemption and Pulp Fiction. Slumdog Millionaire over an un-nominated The Dark Knight. The King's Speech over The Social Network. And definitely Crash over Brokeback Mountain. I wonder which one of those films is remembered the most now.

The Oscars are an interesting thing - they get easily obsessed with one film, whether it be through the manipulative marketing or by the actual film. Then we all wonder how they could be so blind as to not nominate some great films. Of course, the Oscars aren't everything, but to relatively young newcomers to film-loving such as myself, they are the first records of what was good in year X that I'd go to. So I wonder what 2011 films will make it through the Oscars and into a long, prosperous life?

What do you think? Do you think Oscar hits are destined for a long life of being loved by the masses or do they end their lives quickly? Discuss.

Do They Think We're Immune to Life?

Film: The Descendants
Year: 2011
Director: Alexander Payne
Written by: Alexander Payne, Nat Faxon, Jim Rash
Starring: George Clooney, Shailene Woodley, Amara Miller, Nick Krause, Patricia Hastie, Beau Bridges, Judy Greer, Matthew Lillard.
Running time: 115 min.
This is out in New Zealand cinemas on January 26th.

One of the things I don't like about awards season is that there are films that are big hits, getting lots of nominations and stuff and becoming everyone's favourite movie. Then awards season ends, and those movies are forgotten about. The Descendants is one that I feel will become that way. It is getting a lot of buzz, even winning the Best Motion Picture - Drama award at the Golden Globes and numerous accolades for the lead, George Clooney. Yet, while everyone is quick to shower love upon this movie, I am a little more hesitant. Maybe it is because I haven't seen an Alexander Payne movie before, so I'm unfamiliar with his 'easy breezy style' of making movies. The thing is, I just don't know why this movie didn't do anything for me. I might be unpopular in the blogosphere - but this is what the lady sitting next to me said as soon as it finished: "that was so overrated. If George Clooney gets the Oscar this year, it will be such a disappointment. Now Ryan Gosling was fantastic, he should definitely win. He was way better in his movie." I was going to intervene and give her a lecture on how the Gos is unfortunately going to miss out this year because of all of the competition, but I said the exact same thing to my Dad (minus the Gos part). Which made me feel bad, but since I'd just watched a movie that lives and breathes honesty as a way of combating lies (and maybe all feeling), it only felt fitting.

AAN: The BAFTA nominations w/ Fassy, Loki and Owen

I was going to do a Golden Globes recap, but it didn't make much sense since I never saw the show and every man and his dog has blogged about it. All I have to say is this: if The Descendants wins Best Picture or Best Actor, I'll be fuming. I'm one of the few who wasn't terribly impressed by it or by the Cloon's performance. There, I'm unpopular.

Anyway, here are my thoughts on the BAFTAs and how they'll affect the Oscar race, along with Fassy, Loki and Owen in some of the categories (not all, because there are a lot).

Best Film

The Artist / The Descendants / Drive / The Help / Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

YAY for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy! I haven't seen the film, but I am glad that it is finally getting some love. I thought it would be a huge player in the awards race, but it has been virtually non-existent. Such a shame, as it looks so great. And yay for Drive. I will be reviewing that film later tonight, and it was really good. I'm a bit surprised by The Help's nomination, since there are some far better films than that out there, but I'm happy for the inclusion. The Artist and The Descendants are pretty much locks for Best Picture, and The Artist will definitely win. As for The Descendants, meh. This is a brilliant line-up, so I'll give it the Happy Fassy.

Best Director

Michel Hazanavicius - The Artist / Nicolas Winding Refn - Drive / Martin Scorsese - Hugo / Tomas Alfredson - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy / Lynne Ramsay - We Need to Talk About Kevin

What I love about this category is the fact that these directors are nominated because they created wonderful, visual, atmospheric films, unlike the directors who are just nominated because their films are in the best picture category (you know, like Alexander Payne for The Descendants or Steven Spielberg for War Horse). I've only seen Drive and Hugo, but those two are some of the most well-directed films I've seen from 2011, Drive for the style and Hugo for the pretty visuals. Hazanavicius is nominated because he dared to make a silent film, and Alfredson and Ramsay are probably nominated for the atmosphere they create in their films. These nominations are what the directors category should aspire to be, not the ones where directors become a default nomination just because their film is nominated for Best Picture.

Leading Actor

Brad Pitt - Moneyball / Gary Oldman - Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy / George Clooney - The Descendants / Jean Dujardin - The Artist / Michael Fassbender - Shame

Even though it doesn't have Leonardo DiCaprio, this is one bloody good line-up. Sure, I'm pretty meh about George Clooney (I mean, he was quite good, but I don't think he quite deserves to be winning all of these awards), but he is lock whether I like it or not. What I'm most glad to see, though, is Gary Oldman getting some love, finally, as I thought that this would be his year. How does he keep missing out?! I have a feeling that Michael Fassbender has a huge chance here, considering the Brits will be more likely to shower love upon Shame than anyone else. But this should be Pitt's year, though that is looking more and more unlikely. Dujardin could be the upset, though. I love this category!

Leading Actress

Berenice Bejo - The Artist / Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady / Michelle Williams - My Week with Marilyn / Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin / Viola Davis - The Help

Interesting to see that Bejo, a Supporting Actress regular, is in this category. The BAFTAs like to do this a lot, though. This is pretty much our average category, with Streep likely to take the award home. I'm a bit sad that Rooney Mara is getting forgotten a lot for her excellent performance in The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, but there seems to be a slight aversion to young, up-and-coming actresses like her, Felicity Jones or Elizabeth Olsen. I'm pretty 'meh' about this category overall, probably because I have only seen The Help. I could go and see The Iron Lady, but I'm not going to pay to see Meryl Streep be great but everything else not living up to her.

Rest of the nominees after the jump...

AAN: Golden Globes Predictions w/ Fassy, Loki and Owen

I know the Golden Globes aren't for another week, but I have to get my predictions down as I am leaving soon  and I won't be around for the Globes. And it is always nice to predict, especially considering the races are so tight this year it'll be a surprise if I'm right about any of them! Here's how my predictions work:

Remember Happy Fassy, Lowkey Loki and Overwhelmed Owen? Well they factor in to my predictions.
Happy Fassy = Who I'd like to win. Doesn't necessarily mean that they will win, though. Basically, if I got to vote, they'd be the winners.
Lowkey Loki = My official prediction for who will win.
Overwhelmed Owen = The longshot. If this person/film won, then it would be quite the surprise.

Got that locked down? Good. Let's proceed...

Best Motion Picture - Drama:
The Descendants / The Help / Hugo / The Ides of March / Moneyball / War Horse

I guess The Help is my Happy Fassy since it appears to be the only film from this line-up that I've actually seen. I was thinking about putting War Horse there since it is about a horse, I cried a bucket of tears while reading the book, it is a Steven Spielberg movie and Jeremy Irvine is a cutie, but I thought that might be a bit dishonest. I'm seeing it as soon as I get back, since I'm missing opening day so I can be in another country (I'll pretend to be happy about this...). I'm actually not entirely sure about what will win this one, as for me I think the race is between The Descendants, Hugo and Moneyball. The Descendants should probably be taking the award, though I wouldn't take my word for it. The Ides of March looks like a longshot, considering that the Golden Globes seem to be the only awards circuit that is falling head over heels for it.

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy
The Artist / Bridesmaids / 50/50 / Midnight in Paris / My Week with Marilyn

I've only seen two from this category: Midnight in Paris and Bridesmaids. And I think you all know which one I like more. The Artist will definitely take this prize, as it will probably take Best Picture at the Oscars. My Week with Marilyn is obviously the longshot, considering it has had lukewarm reviews and I don't know how it even qualifies to be in this category (I thought it would be more of a drama?)

The rest of my predictions after the jump...

AAN: My thoughts on the Golden Globes nominations w/ Fassy, Loki and Owen

I must admit, I was anticipating a really crap lineup like last year for the Golden Globes. Alas, that was not the case, and I can say I'm more impressed with these nominations than the SAG nominations (which is a surprise). However, as with all awards, there are people snubbed, a few surprises...and how could I possibly sum up my reactions to these nominations? Of course, with Happy Fassy, Lowkey Loki and Overwhelmed Owen, who I introduced you to last night. Alrighty then, let's delve into the second most important nominations to the Oscars:

Best Motion Picture - Drama:

The Descendants
The Help
Hugo
The Ides of March
Moneyball
War Horse

Oooh, six nominations. This is different. But we can't say that we didn't expect it. Actually, something that I didn't expect was to see The Help get nominated. Sure, it's shaping up to be a bit of a The King's Speech (in the way that it kinda looks like Oscar-bait, but not as much as that one), but the critical response for the film wasn't that great. Also, I'm surprised to see The Ides of March nominated, since we haven't seen it around much at any of the other awards. However, I expected The Descendants, Hugo, Moneyball and War Horse to show up. Plus, you may say that War Horse is pure Oscar-bait, but I have to disagree. The book is freaking amazing, so it's no wonder that they wanted to share this beautiful story. Oh, and my own war horse-type horse (from this post) got sold, and now she's even further away. So, when I finally get to see this movie, I'll probably be crying throughout the whole thing.
There were a few snubs, though. To be honest, I'm not that surprised that The Tree of Life didn't get nominated. It's the Golden Globes, for heavens sakes. It will get in at the Oscars, though. While I love the movie, I'm not sure why the awards circuit would go for it, but it could happen. The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is missing, despite the fact that it is winning itself a lot of fans. J. Edgar is also missing. No, I didn't really think it had much of a chance because of the lukewarm reaction towards it, but it just seems like the type of movie that the HFPA would go for (considering all of the people involved). And again, there's no Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy. Why has that film been so absent?
There are some good choices here, but they aren't amazing. Therefore, I'm Lowkey Loki about it.

Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy:

The Artist
Bridesmaids
50/50
Midnight in Paris
My Week with Marilyn

This is a pretty alright line-up. Well, it's more than alright considering how last year we had an absolute train-wreck of a category. At least every movie on this list has been getting some actual good reviews. The Artist will probably win without a doubt, but won't it be weird to see a movie considered as a comedy win Best Picture? Yeah, I'm still predicting it. I still don't get the love for Bridesmaids, but I guess they had to nominate it. The ever elusive 50/50, which I've heard definitely deserves it's place here, gets a nomination, which is good for the indie section of the awards. Midnight in Paris still has a huge place in my heart, and I imagine it could well give The Artist a good run for it's money (after all, they're both nostalgia hits). I'm just not sure what My Week with Marilyn is doing here, since I imagine that it is more of a drama. Is it because there are a few songs in there? Wow, the criteria is so accepting.
I'm actually happy about this category, even if I don't love Bridesmaids like everyone else. And in comparison with last year, this gets a Happy Fassy from me.

The rest of the nominations after the jump...

AAN: My thoughts on the SAG nominations with Fassy, Loki and Owen

Now we have some nominations. In true Annual Awards Nerdism spirit, I will sum up my reaction towards the nominations with the help of three pictures. Last year, I used the 'Strutting Leo', Mark 'You have my attention' Zuckerberg and Steve off Legion. This year, I present to you:

Happy Fassy, Lowkey Loki, and Overwhelmed Owen.

What do these poor attempts at alliteration and rhyming mean, you wonder? Well:
Happy Fassy - As you can see, everyone's favourite Irish/German ginger has a rather large smile (hence the many comparisons to a shark). These nominations make me so happy that I would smile like him, except my mouth is like, a third of his size.
Lowkey Loki - (ha, see what I did there?) I don't really care much for this set of nominations. They're cool and all, but I'm not getting all fassy-nated over it. But they don't anger me that much either. So I'm lowkey excited for it. Or Loki excited for it. Whatever way you want to look at it.
Overwhelmed Owen - I don't understand these nominations, just like Owen didn't understand how he got transported to 1920's Paris. And yeah, my face probably looked like his when I first saw these nominations.
So, now you've all met my versions of Fassy, Loki and Owen, let's hope to talking about this morning's Screen Actors Guild nominations:


Best Ensemble:
The Artist: Bérénice Bejo, James Cromwell, Jean Dujardin, John Goodman and Penelope Ann Miller.
Bridesmaids: Rose Byrne, Jill Clayburgh, Ellie Kemper, Matt Lucas, Melissa McCarthy, Wendi McLendon-Covey, Chris O'Dowd, Maya Rudolph and Kristen Wiig.
The Descendants: Beau Bridges, George Clooney, Robert Forster, Judy Greer, Matthew Lillard and Shailene Woodley.
The Help: Jessica Chastain, Viola Davis, Bryce Dallas Howard, Allison Janney, Chris Lowell, Ahna O'Reilly, Sissy Spacek, Octavia Spencer, Mary Steenburgen, Emma Stone, Cicely Tyson and Mike Vogel.
Midnight in Paris: Kathy Bates, Adrien Brody, Carla Bruni, Marion Cotillard, Rachel McAdams, Michael Sheen and Owen Wilson.

At first glance, I was okay with this set of nominations. Then I looked again. First off, the saying goes that whatever wins this award goes on to win Best Picture. I'm 95% sure that The Help will win this award (because, you know, it has three actresses in contention in the other categories), but there is no chance in hell that it is going to win Best Picture. Then there's the inclusion of Bridesmaids. I'm so over the hype-machine behind this movie. I probably need to watch it again, but I still stand behind my belief that this movie was extremely over-rated and way too long. I would be happy that a female-driven comedy got in here, but I'm completely 'meh' over it. Still, there were a few good performances in it.
But the biggest shock is Midnight in Paris' nomination. That's not saying that the movie is bad, because it is my second favourite movie of the year and I was pretty happy to see it's inclusion. However, then I saw who was nominated for the movie. No Tom Hiddleston? No Alison Pill? No Corey Stoll?! These people did pitch-perfect work as their famous alter-egos, and pretty much made the film. Yet, we are given the performers who got their names on the poster, who I thought (no offence to them) did some pretty bland work. Sure, Adrien Brody was the stand-out, but the rest weren't overly impressive. It's such a shame because I would love for Midnight in Paris to win this award, but when you take Hiddles, Pill and Stoll out of the picture, there isn't a lot of show-stopping work on display. With the three shocks in place, I'll give this the Overwhelmed Owen.


Male Actor in a Leading Role:
Demian Bichir - A Better Life
George Clooney - The Descendants
Leonardo DiCaprio - J. Edgar
Jean Dujardin - The Artist
Brad Pitt - Moneyball

So, is this Demian Bichir like this year's Javier Bardem in Biutiful? He just seemingly came out of nowhere with his little seen performance, and now he is up with the big-wigs. I'm sure this performance is amazing, but this category is so tight that there isn't a lot of space for surprise nominations like this (again, no offence to him...I'm glad that someone like him got nominated). The other four are what we could expect, even though I'm sure Leonardo DiCaprio is losing momentum because of J. Edgar's poor reception and the rise of all of the other nominees. Still, there are plenty of snubs. No Michael Fassbender for Shame? This is not looking good for the Oscars - again, people shouldn't be so touchy about NC-17s. No Michael Shannon for Take Shelter? People are really fearing the apocalypse. No Gary Oldman for Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy? I guess you'll have to sit this one out again, Gary. No Ryan Gosling for Drive? If it was more like Fast & Furious he would have got in no sweat. No Joey for War Horse? Jeez, guys, stop being so mean to horses! They don't deserve this exclusion!
Anyway, I'm willing to let the positives weigh out the negatives. It's an okay line-up, but more Fassy would have made it better. And I can't really pick out a definite winner, so it's a Lowkey Loki for now.


Female Actor in a Leading Role:
Glenn Close - Albert Nobbs
Viola Davis - The Help
Meryl Streep - The Iron Lady
Tilda Swinton - We Need to Talk About Kevin
Michelle Williams - My Weeks with Marilyn

When I look at this category all I can think is that it is so old-fashioned. No, this doesn't have a lot to do with the ages of the actresses. Look at it this way: Glenn Close plays a woman being a man in 19th century Ireland (period melodrama); Viola Davis plays a woman trying to overcome the problems with her race (another period drama, but with an awards-favourite problem); Meryl Streep plays Margaret Thatcher (a biopic...and it's Meryl Streep); Tilda Swinton plays the mother of a disturbed son (okay, maybe this isn't old-fashioned, but Tilda strikes me as old-fashioned); and Michelle Williams, still quite young, plays Hollywood's most exciting legend, Marilyn Monroe (another biopic, but this one is of an actress who needed an actress perfect for the role). Where's the female with the reptilian body art? Where's the girl who escaped from an abusive cult? Where's the depressed bride who hates the world just like Lars von Trier? Where's the British girl who keeps winning all of the breakthrough awards even though her film is just an indie love-story? Where's the other Brit who is in a movie named after a dinosaur? Hollywood awards: so afraid of change.
These actresses make up a fine line-up, though. But it's just too old-fashioned for me to be all fassy-nated over it.


Male Actor in a Supporting Role:
Kenneth Branagh - My Week with Marilyn
Armie Hammer - J. Edgar
Jonah Hill - Moneyball
Nick Nolte - Warrior
Christopher Plummer - Beginners

I'm starting to wonder whether J. Edgar was really that bigger failure. Armie Hammer's inclusion in this category is quite confusing, even though I've heard good things about his performance and I love his perfectness to bits. But let's just say, I'm not sure that he'll be making it any further than this. Jonah Hill's inclusion confuses me also. Nick Nolte is a surprise inclusion, but I've seen a lot of people rooting for him so I guess I can deal with that. Branagh and Plummer don't surprise me, though. Because we all know that Plummer is going to win. Anyway, without Serkis, Hawkes or Brooks, this category feels like a huge disappointment. Yup, my eyes are widened in confusion at the moment. Also, since they completely snubbed Corey Stoll for his ensemble work, they should have nominated him here. After all, he was a great Ernest Hemingway.


Female Actor in a Supporting Role:
Bérénice Bejo - The Artist
Jessica Chastain - The Help
Melissa McCarthy - Bridesmaids
Janet McTeer - Albert Nobbs
Octavia Spencer - The Help

At first glance, I'm okay with this lineup. But then I remember a few things:
1) I will not accept a Melissa McCarthy nomination if there's not an Andy Serkis nomination. I can't tell you the exact reason for this, but it's just a little rule I've made up in my head.
2) There's no Carey Mulligan. What a shame. (hahahahahahahahahahahaha, bet that one has been used a few times today).
3) There's no Shailene Woodley, either. She looked like a lock for a while, but her omission here could hurt her chances.
4) Vanessa Redgrave was left out for her work in Coriolanus. I thought she was a lock, too.
5) Turns out, the only 'locks' are from the same film. And even I can't be sure about Jessica Chastain.
However, if my darling Chastain is nominated, I am happy. It looks like she'll be aiming for success with The Help, which I don't have a problem with at all (her performance was my favourite in that movie). This category is just really weird.

Here's the tally of Fassy, Loki, and Owen for the SAG awards:
0 Happy Fassy's.
2 Lowkey Loki's.
3 Overwhelmed Owen's.

Looks like a pretty disappointing lineup, eh? What are your thoughts on these nominations?

AAN: Gotham, NYFCC and Spirit Awards

Well, I think we can officially kick Annual Awards Nerdism off. For those of you not in the know: Annual Awards Nerdism is my version of awards coverage, but I do it in a fun-ish way. When we get down to predicting the winners for the Oscars, I put them into poems. Now, you don't see that every day. Check out last years coverage here. Today I'll look at the winners of the Gotham Independent Film Awards, the New York Film Critics Circle winners and the Independent Spirit Awards nominees...

Gotham Independent Film Awards Winners

Best Film: Tie between The Tree of Life and Beginners
Best Documentary: Better This World
Breakthrough Award: Felicity Jones for Like Crazy
Breakthrough Director: Dee Rees for Pariah
Best Ensemble Performance: Beginners
Best Film Not Playing in a Theatre Near You: Scenes of a Crime

What does this mean for Oscar? The tie between The Tree of Life and Beginners is interesting, seeing as a tie has never happened for this award and these films are completely different. But I think between this and the Palme D'Or at Cannes, we could see The Tree of Life becoming a lock in the Best Picture race. Beginners I'm not so sure about...it's a brilliant film, but I can't see it sustaining the momentum until Oscar time as a film. Christopher Plummer will probably be it's only chance at Oscar glory. Also, I was kinda surprised about Felicity Jones winning the Breakthrough Award. I don't doubt her talent, as I'm secretly hoping that maybe she'll get a few more awards, but everyone has been going for Elizabeth Olsen in Martha Marcy May Marlene and Shailene Woodley in The Descendants to be nominated this year. I wouldn't read too much into it; I think Jones' film is perhaps a little too small and it has seemed to pass by without many people noticing it. But I think people campaigning for Like Crazy should definitely push Jones even more.

NYFCC and Independent Spirit after the jump...