Sunday, February 27, 2011

AAN: Oscar predictions - Best Picture

Welcome to Part Five of my Oscar predictions - the big one that Annual Awards Nerdism for 2011 has come down to.

Jeez Louise, is it that time already? Tomorrow the Oscars will arrive, sadly while I'll be at school (but I'll be in my computing class which will keep me up to date with everything), and we'll have the answers to our many questions. I'm so excited my stomach has that funny butterfly feeling, but then again, once the Oscars are gone, there won't be much excitement in my life for a while.

Anyway, today I'll be predicting Best Picture. First I am going to rank my favourites from the Best Pic race in a similar style to the 'Top 10' lists I do every now and again. Then I shall give you my actual 'Zuck' prediction afterwards.

Anyway, let's begin!

10. The Kids Are All Right

While I praised The Kids Are All Right for it's believable characters and funny portrait of a modern family, the end just felt like it was lacking something. In fact, the movie felt like it was lacking something, which was a shame because it had such a great concept. I don't fully understand why it got the nomination, as I wouldn't think that this was the type of film the Academy would go for, but I'm glad to see they went for at least one intentionally funny piece in the lineup. It has a Golden Globe win to its name which gives it a bit more height, but seriously, did the film have any competition in that category? Oh, that's right, The Tourist was supposed to be going for gold this year. And The Kids Are All Right took its shot at glory. *gasp* What has this world come to?!

9. The Fighter

Let's face it: The Fighter is probably concerned with it's stars winning acting awards than it is about winning Best Pic. Christian Bale will almost definitely win Best Supporting Actor and either Melissa Leo or Amy Adams both have really good chances of winning Best Supporting Actress. But the sad thing about that is the fact that Mark Wahlberg missed out on an acting nom and will miss out again on winning Best he is the producer of this film. Poor Marky Mark. Despite early reviews hailing The Fighter as a masterpiece and whatnot, a lot of people have come out saying this movie is quite 'pedestrian' and not actually that great. I think this is a common happening in awards season: they say a film is great at first, but once they get nominated they turn on it, as they've probably found new things. So basically, they should have just nominated Drive Angry early so it didn't lose any fans come Oscar night.
8. Winter's Bone
I actually thought that this would be my least favourite out of the lot of them. But no, Winter's Bone struck a chord with me, even if it wasn't a hit with everyone. I do admit, it's inclusion in the Best Picture race is strange considering the size of the production and the fact that people would have rather seen movies like The Town in it's place, but I am glad it got a look in. Even if it won't win, it is here, and that's all that matters. Yeah, it doesn't have a chance. I imagine the only reason that it is here is because of the fact that the critics really, really stuck behind it and it has that Sundance seal of approval. It has better chances in the acting categories it is going for. Winter's Bone will probably become like A Serious Man last year: the little, forgotten nominee.
7. The King's Speech

Don't get me wrong, I like The King's Speech. It's a nice movie which made me feel uplifted and whatnot. I just don't want it to win Best Picture. As everyone says, it's too 'safe'.
Anyway, if the movie does win, I shall be reciting a special quote from this film:
"Fuck. Fuck! Fuck, fuck, fuck and fuck! Fuck, fuck and bugger! Bugger, bugger, buggerty buggerty buggerty, fuck, fuck, arse! Balls, balls...fuckity, shit, shit, fuck and willy. Willy, shit and fuck and... tits."
See, I love this movie so much.

Being a 'Western virgin', as it would seem, I surprisingly really enjoyed The Coens rendition of True Grit. The character work was the particular highlight, along with the brilliant acting from one awesome cast. I can still see Hailee Steinfeld winning for her work in the film, and if everyone were to forget The King's Speech and The Social Network for a second, this movie might actually win Best Picture. But that is a prediction that is a little far from reality. The film has had the same momentum right throughout the awards season: it just turned up with a lot of critical applause but hasn't really been overhyped or blown out of proportion like The King's Speech has been. That reason could again work in its favour, but I can't see this movie getting much return on it's ten nominations.
5. Black Swan
It's been a month since I saw Black Swan and not a day goes by when I am not haunted by at least one image from the movie. I've had just about enough of people here bad mouthing it, too. Sure, the only chance it has at winning anything is Natalie Portman, but Black Swan is a much better film than a lot of people are giving it credit for. It's definitely not the type of film that would win Best Pic, but there could be a first time for everything right? Especially if the voters like some Natalie Portman and Mila Kunis.
4. 127 Hours
While everyone thought The King's Speech was uplifting, I thought 127 Hours was the most uplifting out there. Definitely the most uplifting. Sure, King George had his stammer and he had to save his country by saving himself, but Aron Ralston had to chop off his own arm in order to survive. And the moments we see that on film are the most harrowing and deeply disturbing that I may have ever seen. 127 Hours is the posterchild for brilliant editing and being a film which makes you feel every ounce of pain. Why wasn't Danny Boyle nominated for Best Director? Geez. And why were lots of people doubting that this film would even get into the nominations? Beyond me. 127 Hours totally owns. It's so bloody awesome. (no pun intended)
3. Toy Story 3
Ah, I only have fond memories of Toy Story 3. People may say it's overrated and all, but I love it to bits. I mean, this movie made me cry more than any movie I've ever seen apart from Requiem for a Dream. It just gets me every time. Of course, this film doesn't really need to win here as it will win in the Best Animated section. And it doesn't have much chance considering it's an animated and it came out such a long time ago that it has lost its momentum. But considering that it's the highest grossing animated film of all time, how long will it take for an animated flick to win Best Pic? Coz, in my opinion, you really don't get much better than this.
2. The Social Network
I literally think that The Social Network is one of the best movies ever made. And even though it's not my number one, I still think that it should win Best Pic. Because this is one of those once-in-a-lifetime kinds of movies. There simply isn't a way in which I can clearly describe it. All I know is that it has come so far and it just can't turn back empty handed. It won all the top honours from the critics societies. Sure, it lost out on all the Guild awards. But at the end of the day, which movie will last longer: The King's Speech or The Social Network?
1. Inception
Didn't see that one coming, did you? There is still a little inkling of hope that my second favourite movie of all time will be a surprise and win. Like, I can actually picture it happening. But it probably won't, since it's a sci-fi, since it requires a brain and probably since Christopher Nolan has something to do with it. Inception doesn't need a fancy Oscar to prove its the best. It just is the best.
Who do I think will actually win?
The Social Network. Well, I'm 75% expecting The King's Speech to win, but the more I think about The Social Network, the more I like its chances, so I will go with that prediction. It better bloody win, that's for sure.
Everything that isn't The King's Speech or The Social Network. Well, the biggest longshot is probably The Kids Are All Right.
So, they're all my predictions wrapped up. What are you thinking will win?
See you back here tomorrow for my thoughts on the winners!


    I like your TKS idea. You know, I liked it. I even put it in my top 10. But seriously people, it wasn't THAT good.
    You should check out my post on TSN and how it should win the awards.
    Damn Oscars tomorrow(time difference)- I don't even get to see it as the most important exams of my school life start at the same time :(

  2. Also...anyone from your first 5 win, I shall be happy. Anyone else (especially a very undeserving number 7)-

    "Fuck. Fuck! Fuck, fuck, fuck and fuck! Fuck, fuck and bugger! Bugger, bugger, buggerty buggerty buggerty, fuck, fuck, arse! Balls, balls...fuckity, shit, shit, fuck and willy. Willy, shit and fuck and... tits."

  3. That sucks! But I totally agree with you, 100%

  4. I think that TSN has solid chances to win. But among two frontrunners I'm rooting for TKS.

  5. Your Top 3 is the same aorders my Top 3, but in a slightly different order, (Toy Story 3, Inception, The Social Network). Since Toy Story 3 doesn't have a chance in hell though, I am rooting for The Social Network to take home the gold, as if it doesn't, the Oscars really have stuck the nail in the coffin and cemented their reputation as 'boring, old men' no matter how much they can claim they have new fresh-faced actors on board their voting stands for itself. They really don't like originality pulled off well.

    I mean, for me, all the films apart from the Top 3 (and I guess True Grit to some extent, which I suprisingly enjoyed), are on the same level of films for me.

    Black Swan: I feel like, "I've had just about enough of people here bad mouthing it, too" I have somehow contributed too haha, but everything I said about Black Swan, I did back up with good things.

    The King's Speech: Why are you there? Wow, it's been a while since I was so bored by a film, so, so bored. Except the art direction was pretty amazing, and so were the costumes. And Helena Bonham Carter was the light at the end of the tunnel.

    That's the end of my rant.

  6. I think it's a close race between Inception and The Social Network. I can't see WHY The King's Speech is there.
    Sad thing is I can't watch the Oscars since I'm in school too(Why don't they make a worldwide Oscar Awards Day so everyone can stay home and watch it?!) but I'm praying my Tech class is hands-on so I can sneak a peek.

    I would rather Inception win Best Picture though, it really deserves it for the snub they gave Christopher Nolan. If it doesn't, I have this to say:

    "Fuck. Fuck! Fuck, fuck, fuck and fuck! Fuck, fuck and bugger! Bugger, bugger, buggerty buggerty buggerty, fuck, fuck, arse! Balls, balls...fuckity, shit, shit, fuck and willy. Willy, shit and fuck and... tits."

  7. "Fuck. Fuck! Fuck, fuck, fuck and fuck! Fuck, fuck and bugger! Bugger, bugger, buggerty buggerty buggerty, fuck, fuck, arse! Balls, balls...fuckity, shit, shit, fuck and willy. Willy, shit and fuck and... tits."

    LETS START A RIOT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

  8. So...looks like I was wrong.

    Should I start being nice to The King's Speech?

  9. No...don't. C'mon. They only gave it because they wanna be invited to Prince William and Kate Middleton's wedding.
    Think 5-10 years from now. TSN, Inception, Black Swan, Toy Story 3 will be remembered. Not The King's Speech. Never The King's Speech.


You mustn't be afraid to dream a little bigger, darling.


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